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カレッジフットボールのマネーライン

概要

マネーラインでアンダードッグに賭けて良いと思う賭けは滅多にありません。以下のチャートは、過去のデータ(1983年から2005年)に基づいて、ポイントスプレッドごとの勝率を示しています。

以下の表は実際のデータを示しています。勝利確率の推定値は、変動を平滑化したものです。フェアマネーラインは、勝利確率の推定値に基づいています。この表には、NFLにおける「キーナンバー」は考慮されていません。つまり、勝利の差が他の差よりもはるかに大きい場合があり、特に3点差と7点差は顕著です。2.5点差と3.5点差では、ハンディキャップがはるかに大きくなります。そのため、3.5点差のアンダードッグは、2.5点差のアンダードッグに比べて勝利の可能性が大幅に低くなります。調整は読者の皆様にお任せします(申し訳ありません)。

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nfl_super_bowl_winner_logo.png American Football NFLスーパーボウルの勝者
Later
競合他社/チームTeam
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Philadelphia Eagles
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
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San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams
Denver Broncos
Washington Commanders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Minnesota Vikings
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Atlanta Falcons
Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals
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フェイバリットチームのフェアマネーラインを求めるには、-1を掛けるだけです。例えば、7ポイントのアンダードッグチームの勝率は30.2%と推定され、フェアマネーラインは+231となります。つまり、7ポイントのフェイバリットチームの勝率は69.8%となり、フェアマネーラインは-231となります。

NFLのポイントスプレッドによる勝利確率

広める勝利負ける実際の確率推定確率フェアマネーライン
0 472 944 50.0% 50.0% 100
1.5 132 284 46.5% 45.5% 120
2 141 280 50.4% 44.1% 127
2.5 164 376 43.6% 42.6% 135
3 246 540 45.6% 41.1% 143
3.5 134 358 37.4% 39.7% 152
4 135 337 40.1% 38.3% 161
4.5 93 259 35.9% 36.9% 171
5 74 213 34.7% 35.5% 182
5.5 101 294 34.4% 34.1% 193
6 109 343 31.8% 32.8% 205
6.5 121 383 31.6% 31.5% 217
7 146 493 29.6% 30.2% 231
7.5 84 332 25.3% 29.0% 245
8 73 243 30.0% 27.8% 260
8.5 67 227 29.5% 26.6% 276
9 62 225 27.6% 25.5% 293
9.5 64 250 25.6% 24.3% 311
10 79 320 24.7% 23.3% 330
10.5 43 210 20.5% 22.2% 350
11 56 217 25.8% 21.2% 372
11.5 38 142 26.8% 20.2% 395
12 37 179 20.7% 19.3% 419
12.5 38 176 21.6% 18.4% 445
13 42 237 17.7% 17.5% 472
13.5 42 210 20.0% 16.6% 501
14 56 328 17.1% 15.8% 532
14.5 28 194 14.4% 15.0% 565
15 19 157 12.1% 14.3% 599
15.5 20 123 16.3% 13.6% 636
16 22 171 12.9% 12.9% 675
16.5 14 144 9.7% 12.2% 717
17 29 239 12.1% 11.6% 761
17.5 17 134 12.7% 11.0% 808
18 8 121 6.6% 10.4% 858
18.5 6 89 6.7% 9.9% 910
19 18 142 12.7% 9.4% 966
19.5 10 83 12.0% 8.9% 1,026
20 9 136 6.6% 8.4% 1,089
20.5 12 109 11.0% 8.0% 1,156
21 10 138 7.2% 7.5% 1,227
21.5 4 94 4.3% 7.1% 1,303
22 5 128 3.9% 6.7% 1,383
22.5 7 71 9.9% 6.4% 1,468
23 7 115 6.1% 6.0% 1,558
23.5 5 76 6.6% 5.7% 1,654
24 6 122 4.9% 5.4% 1,756
24.5 3 68 4.4% 5.1% 1,864
25 5 62 8.1% 4.8% 1,978
25.5 2 61 3.3% 4.5% 2,100
26 1 78 1.3% 4.3% 2,229
26.5 4 55 7.3% 4.1% 2,366
27 1 79 1.3% 3.8% 2,512
27.5 2 56 3.6% 3.6% 2,666
28 6 93 6.5% 3.4% 2,830
28.5 2 41 4.9% 3.2% 3,004
29 1 52 1.9% 3.0% 3,189
29.5 1 38 2.6% 2.9% 3,385
30 1 52 1.9% 2.7% 3,594
30.5 3 33 9.1% 2.6% 3,815
31 2 58 3.4% 2.4% 4,049