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NHLに賭ける

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概要

NHLに賭ける

このページの目的は、レクリエーションホッケーの普及と発展を支援することです。マネーライン、オーバー/アンダー、パックラインといった主要な賭け方の価値を綿密に分析し、最適な賭け方を決定します。そして、皆様の楽しみのために、ホッケーに関する様々な統計情報を掲載します。

データと方法論

以下のデータは、2017/18シーズンから始まるNHLの4シーズンにおける全試合のデータです。この4シーズンの合計試合数は4,875試合です。なお、 2020/2021シーズンは新型コロナウイルス感染症のパンデミックの影響で1,904試合に短縮されました。

データはBig Ball Dataから1シーズンずつ購入しました。最初の3シーズンは、Pinnacle Sportsから取得したと思われる非常にタイトなラインでした。4シーズン目は、より一般的な20セントラインでした。以下の期待リターンを評価するにあたり、全データの総合リターンを計算し、適切な加重係数を用いて、ホッケーのスポーツブックのほとんどが提供している20セントラインでの期待リターン4.54%と等しくなるようにしました。

次の 3 つのセクションでは、ホッケーに賭ける 3 つの主な方法 (マネー ライン、オーバー/アンダー、パック ライン) の分析を示します。

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マネーライン

マネーラインベットは、誰が勝つかを予想するシンプルな賭けです。以下の表は、アンダードッグ、フェイバリット、ピック(両チームの勝率は50/50)のすべてにフラットベットした場合の期待リターンを示しています。他のスポーツの調査結果からも予想される通り、アンダードッグの方がハウスエッジがフェイバリットよりも2.73%低く、よりバリューの高い賭けとなっています。

NHLのマネーラインベット

賭ける期待される
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アンダードッグ96.82% 3.18%
お気に入り94.09% 5.91%
選ぶ95.45% 4.55%
合計95.45% 4.55%

調査対象となった過去4シーズンの4,875試合のうち、ホームチームの勝利数は2,627試合(53.9%)、アウェイチームの勝利数は2,248試合(46.1%)でした。次の表は、マネーラインベットの勝敗数と勝敗数の内訳を示しています。

NHLのマネーラインベット

賭ける期待される
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94.82% 5.18%
96.09% 3.91%
合計95.45% 4.55%

オーバー/アンダー

次の表は、トータルベットに対する賭け方を示しています。予想通り、アンダーベットはハウスエッジがカバーベットよりも1.67%高く、利益が出ています。これは驚くべきことではありません。なぜなら、私が研究したどのスポーツでも、アンダーベットはオーバーベットよりも大幅に利益が出ているからです。

NHLのオーバー/アンダーベット

賭ける期待される
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以上94.62% 5.38%
96.29% 3.71%
合計95.45% 4.55%

パックライン

パックラインは野球のランラインに似ています。常に1.5のポイントスプレッドです。フェイバリットは常に1.5失点し、アンダードッグが得点します。次の表は、アンダードッグに賭けた場合のハウスエッジがフェイバリットに賭けた場合よりも1.61%低いことを示しています。

NHLのパックラインベット

賭ける期待される
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アンダードッグ +1.5 96.26% 3.74%
お気に入り -1.5 94.65% 5.35%
合計95.45% 4.55%

マネーラインベットが公平だと仮定した場合、パックラインベットに価値があるかどうかを調べるために、パックラインベットの研究に多くの時間を費やしたことを付け加えておきます。簡単に言うと、スポーツブックはパックラインを適切に設定することに優れていると思います。

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楽しい事実

次の表は、レギュラー シーズンの試合とプレーオフの両方における、ピリオドおよび延長戦ごとの平均得点を示しています。

これらを別々に考えるべきだと考える理由は、レギュラーシーズンの試合では延長戦に突入するインセンティブがあるからです。具体的には、3ピリオドで決着がついた場合、勝者に2ポイント、敗者に0ポイントが与えられます。しかし、延長戦で決着がついた場合は、勝者に2ポイント、敗者に1ポイントが与えられます。延長戦は常にサドンデス(先制点を取ったチームが勝利)です。データによると、レギュラーシーズンの試合で延長戦に突入する確率は22.57%ですが、プレーオフでは20.89%に低下します。

期間別平均ゴール数

期間通常
季節
時間とともに組み合わせ
1 1.7260 1.5300 1.7106
2 2.0100 1.9530 2.0055
3 2.0151 1.9008 2.0062
時間とともに0.2257 0.2089 0.2244
合計5.9768 5.5927 5.9467

次の表は、1 つのチームが期間ごとに獲得する可能性のあるすべてのゴール数の確率を示しています。

期間別チーム別ゴール数

目標第1期第2期第3期
0 42.02% 36.04% 37.08%
1 37.01% 37.84% 35.67%
2 15.59% 17.94% 19.22%
3 4.39% 6.50% 6.22%
4 0.81% 1.41% 1.56%
5 0.17% 0.24% 0.23%
6 0.01% 0.03% 0.03%
7 0.00% 0.01% 0.00%
合計100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
平均0.8553 1.0028 1.0031

次の表は、両チームを合わせた各ピリオドで獲得される可能性のあるすべてのゴール数の確率を示しています。

期間別チーム別ゴール数

目標第1期第2期第3期
0 17.68% 12.80% 12.21%
1 30.75% 26.38% 26.87%
2 26.77% 28.35% 28.33%
3 15.77% 18.65% 19.43%
4 6.58% 9.39% 8.88%
5 1.78% 3.16% 2.81%
6 0.51% 0.82% 1.15%
7 0.06% 0.37% 0.29%
8 0.06% 0.08% 0.04%
9 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
合計100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
平均1.7106 2.0055 2.0062

以下は、2017 年に始まった 4 シーズンにおける、ホーム チームとアウェイ チームの得点数を示しています。

ホームチームとアウェイチームの得点数


目標

目標
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9合計
0 0 40 46 88 61 20 9 0 0 0 264
1 51 0 214 129 178 70 23 10 4 1 680
2 49 227 0 334 151 130 41 18 2 0 952
3 96 168 336 0 278 96 56 18 7 0 1055
4 68 180 191 274 0 128 24 20 2 0 887
5 32 97 223 89 106 0 34 6 4 0 591
6 11 44 56 93 38 35 0 5 0 1 283
7 6 25 20 31 20 7 6 0 0 0 115
8 2 2 10 6 7 6 2 1 0 0 36
9 1 1 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 10
10 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
合計316 786 1098 1048 841 492 195 78 19 2 4875

以下は、2017 年に始まった 4 シーズンにおける、勝利チームと敗北チームの得点数を示しています。

勝利チームと敗北チームによる得点数

優勝チーム負けチーム
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9合計
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91
2 95 441 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 536
3 184 297 670 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1151
4 129 358 342 552 0 0 0 0 0 0 1381
5 52 167 353 185 234 0 0 0 0 0 991
6 20 67 97 149 62 69 0 0 0 0 464
7 6 35 38 49 40 13 11 0 0 0 192
8 2 6 12 13 9 10 2 1 0 0 55
9 1 2 2 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 12
10 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
合計580 1375 1514 952 347 92 14 1 0 0 4875

次の表は、2017 年に始まった 4 シーズンの各勝利差の数と確率を示しています。

勝利の差

マージンカウント確率
1 2,069 42.44%
2 996 20.43%
3 1,095 22.46%
4 451 9.25%
5 172 3.53%
6 71 1.46%
7 14 0.29%
8 4 0.08%
9 3 0.06%
合計4,875 100.00%

次の表は、アウェイチームとホームチームの試合ごとのさまざまな統計と、両者の合計を示しています。

その他の統計 — ロード vs. ホーム

説明ロードチームホームチーム組み合わせ
シフト384.95 379.46 764.41
ゴールへのシュート30.56 31.87 62.43
シュートミス11.36 12.16 23.52
シュートブロック14.34 13.90 28.24
アシスト4.68 5.16 9.84
ポイント* 7.47 8.22 15.70
罰則3.58 3.34 6.92
ペナルティ分8.47 7.92 16.40
ヒット22.37 23.29 45.66
持ち帰り6.32 7.97 14.29
プレゼント7.95 10.56 18.52
フェイスオフ勝利28.42 29.93 58.35
フェイスオフ負け29.93 28.42 58.34

次の表は、レギュラー シーズンとプレーオフの試合ごとのさまざまな統計と、両者の合計を示しています。

その他の統計 - レギュラーシーズン vs. プレーオフ

説明通常
季節
プレーオフ組み合わせ
シフト759.22 825.24 764.41
ゴールへのシュート62.40 62.79 62.43
シュートミス23.48 23.95 23.52
シュートブロック27.92 31.91 28.24
アシスト9.88 9.34 9.84
ポイント15.76 14.93 15.70
罰則6.85 7.77 6.92
ペナルティ分16.16 19.18 16.40
ヒット43.74 68.15 45.66
持ち帰り14.28 14.39 14.29
プレゼント18.32 20.89 18.52
フェイスオフ勝利58.29 59.09 58.35

注:
*: ポイントはゴールとは異なります。ゴールをアシストした選手にもポイントが与えられる場合があります。2017年からの4シーズンにおけるNHLのポイントとゴールの比率は2.64です。

次の表は、さまざまな方法でカットされたゴールとゴールへのシュートの比率を示しています。

ゴールとシュートの比率

カテゴリ比率
離れて9.29%
9.75%
レギュラーシーズン9.58%
プレーオフ8.91%
合計9.52%

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