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NFLのパーレーベット

導入

ギャンブル用語で「パーレー」とは、少なくとも2つのイベントに賭け、それぞれの勝利のたびに賞金を賭け続けることを意味します。通常は負けますが、勝てば、そしてパーレーされたイベントの数にもよりますが、大金を獲得できる可能性があります。

スポーツベッティングでは、試合が同時に行われている場合でも、ベッターは勝利をパーレーすることができます。これは「オフ・ザ・ボード」またはパーレーカードを使用して行うことができます。このページでは両方の方法について説明し、3種類の一般的なパーレーカードを取り上げました。このページで私が伝えたいのは、パーレーカードをランダムに選択するのはスポーツベッティングの悪い方法であり、高いハウスエッジにつながるということです。しかし、賢いベッターはNFLでよくある勝利の差からラインの動きを利用し、ハーフポイントパーレーカードで30%以上の大きなアドバンテージを得ることができます。

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このページに掲載されている勝利確率や期待リターンは鵜呑みにしないよう、あらかじめ断っておきます。パーレーカードのポイントスプレッドは、カードによって意図的に整数または非整数に変更されているという仮定を立てざるを得ませんでした。また、私のデータは、パーレーカードが印刷された時点からゲーム開始時までにラインが頻繁に移動するという事実を反映していません。カードメーカーは、プレイヤーのアドバンテージを最小限に抑えるために、ポイントスプレッドを慎重に設定する場合があります。一方で、クロージングラインはオープニングラインよりもシャープであることは周知の事実であり、プレイヤーは土壇場でパーレーカードを出すことで、こうしたラインの移動を利用できます。総合的に判断すると、ハーフポイントパーレーカードには大きなアドバンテージがあると考えていますが、そのアドバンテージを正確に計算することはできません。そのアドバンテージは大きくなることも小さくなることもあります。

このページを読んだ後、懐疑的な人は「ハーフポイント・パーレーカードに勝つのはそんなに簡単なのに、なぜ誰もやらないのか?」と疑問に思うかもしれません。多くのベッターがそう思っています。スポーツブックメーカーは、特定のホットゲームで同じ側が大敗する傾向があるため、ハーフポイント・パーレーカードを使うことに不安を感じています。しかし、多くのプロギャンブラーにとって、ハーフポイント・パーレーカードは有効なアドバンテージプレイではないでしょう。その理由は以下の通り。

  1. 多額の資金を投入するのは難しい。通常、パーレーカード1枚に賭けられる最高額は200ドルで、たとえ100ドルの賭けでも、すべての選択肢がホットサイドで相関関係にある場合、警戒すべき事態を引き起こす可能性がある。
  2. 泡を注入するのに時間がかかります。
  3. 豊作か貧乏か。一般的に、プレイヤーがより多くのレグを組むほど、有利になります。例えば、8レグのハーフポイントパーレーは、最大で200倍の配当となります。もちろん、このようなロングショットベットは大抵負けます。

パーレーカードが自分に合っているかどうかは、ご自身で判断してください。しかし、もし賭けるなら、私の分析から何か学べることがあるかもしれません。

方法論

このページの勝率はすべて、1994年から2012年のシーズンに行われた4,950試合に基づいています。特に明記されていない限り、すべての予想はスプレッドに賭けることを意味します。ラインが大きく変動しない限り、パーレーカードでトータルベットをすることはお勧めしません。

オフ・ザ・ボード・パーレイ

「オフ・ザ・ボード」パーレーは、賭ける時点でのベッティングボード上の現在のポイントスプレッドに基づきます。カードに記入する必要はありません。代わりに、ベッターはパーレーしたいベット番号と賭け金をライターに伝えます。以下の表は、各レグのオッズが-110(ベッターは10ドルの勝利のために11ドルを賭ける)であると仮定した場合、ピック数とスポーツブックグループに応じてパーレーベットの配当がいくらになるかを示しています。この表の勝敗は「1対1」の配当です。つまり、賭けが勝てば元の賭け金が返金されます。

ボード外のパーレイ — ペイテーブル

スポーツブック
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
ボイド2.6 6 10 20 40 80 160
カンター2.6 6 10 20 40
ゴールデンナゲット2.6 6 11 22 40 75 140
シーザーズ2.6 6 10 20 40 75 140
LVH 2.6 6 11 22 40 75 140
ジェリーズ・ナゲット2.7 6.5 13 26 47 92 180
MGM 2.6 6 10 20 40 80 150
2.6 6 11 22 40 80 150
成層圏2.6 6 11 22 40 80 160
宝島2.6 6 10 20 40 80 160
ウィリアムヒル2.6 6 11 22 45 90 180 360 720
ウィン2.6 6 10 20 40
サウスポイント2.6 6 10 20 40 75 150

この表からわかるのは、ジェリーズ・ナゲットが全体的に最も寛大なオフ・ザ・ボード・パーレー・オッズを提供しているということです。利便性を除けば、ラスベガスでオフ・ザ・ボード・パーレー・ベットを他の場所でする理由はないでしょう。

プレイヤーがパーレーに-110オッズではないレグを含めた場合、上記の配当表は使用されません。代わりに、ライターがパーレーの各レグを入力すると、コンピューターがベットの配当を計算します。コンピューターは、各ベットが独立して行われたかのように計算し、すべての勝利をそのまま反映させます。例えば、スプレッドが-110のゲームとマネーラインが+250のゲームをパーレーし、両方が勝利した場合、配当は(210/110)×(350/100) - 1 = 5.68対1となります。

3レッグパーレーとジェリーズ・ナゲットの高額オッズを除けば、パーレーでは少なくとも1つのレッグを-110以外のオッズに賭けることで、より良いバリューを得ることができます。その方法は3つあります。

  • できれば勝ち目のないチームにマネーラインベットを混ぜてください。
  • 通常は3ポイントから始まる、偏ったラインを混ぜてみましょう。例えば、片方のレッグに105または115を賭けるなどです。
  • 片方のレッグから0.5ポイント賭けてください。3ポイント賭けはおそらく認められないでしょう。そのため、7ポイントのアンダードッグなら+7.5、7ポイントのフェイバリットなら-6.5の配当を得るために、120ドル賭けるのが理想的です。迷った場合は、+7.5のアンダードッグに賭けましょう。

例を使ってこれがどのように機能するかを見てみましょう。

  • ジェシーは、40対1の配当を誇る多くのスポーツブックメーカーの1つで、スプレッドが-110の6レッグ・パーレーを賭けています。彼の勝率は(1/2) 6 = 1.5625%です。期待リターンは(1/2) 6 ×(40+1) = 64.06%です。
  • ウォルターは同じチームで6レグのパーレーも行っています。5レグはオッズ-110のままにしておきます。6レグ目では、7ポイントのアンダードッグから0.5ポイントを購入し、+7.5のオッズを得ます。0.5ポイントのオッズには-120を支払う必要があります。パーレーの配当は(210/110) 5 × (220/120) - 1 = 45.49対1です。より大きな配当が得られるだけでなく、追加の0.5ポイントがあるため、勝利の確率も上がります。具体的には、7レグで追加の0.5ポイントを獲得する確率は51.95%です。したがって、彼の全体的な勝利確率は(1/2) 5 × 0.5195 = 1.6234%です。期待リターンは0.016234 × (45.49+1) = 77.10%です。

つまり、7 ポイントのうち半分を購入することで、ウォルターはジェシーに比べて期待収益を 13% 増加させます。

前述の通り、上記のアドバイスの例外として、3レッグパーレーの標準配当は6ドルで、計算方法による配当5.96ドルよりも高額です。まとめると、ボード外パーレーに関する私のアドバイスは次のようになります。

Jerry's Nugget では、6 チーム パーレーを除き、-110 イベントに固執します。6 チーム パーレーでは、-110 ではないピックを少なくとも 1 つ混ぜる方がわずかに有利です。
ジェリーズ・ナゲットではそうではありません。3チームパーレーの場合は、-110のイベントに絞ってください。それ以外の場合は、-110以外のイベントも混ぜてください。

スポーツベッティングにおいて最も重要なアドバイスは、アンダードッグに賭けることです!1994年以降、アンダードッグの51.6%がスプレッドを上回りました。この傾向は終わったと思うなら、次の表はアンダードッグのスプレッドに対する勝率を年ごとに示しています。

スプレッドに対するアンダードッグの勝率

季節勝利損失勝率
1994 236 206 53.39%
1995 254 226 52.92%
1996 244 240 50.41%
1997 248 210 54.15%
1998 222 254 46.64%
1999 274 228 54.58%
2000 266 234 53.20%
2001 248 230 51.88%
2002 284 236 54.62%
2003 254 254 50.00%
2004 272 240 53.13%
2005 214 298 41.80%
2006 298 218 57.75%
2007 244 260 48.41%
2008 264 250 51.36%
2009 264 254 50.97%
2010 268 250 51.74%
2011 264 238 52.59%
2012 262 252 50.97%
平均4880 4578 51.60%

この点を強調することは重要なので、図も示しておきます。

結論として、ボード外のパーレーに賭ける場合の私のアドバイスは次のとおりです。

  1. 勝ち目のないチームに賭けましょう。
  2. ジェリーズ ナゲットに賭けるか、オッズが -110 ではないものを少なくとも 1 つ選びます。
  3. -110 イベントにこだわらなければならず、Jerry's Nugget に参加していない場合は、3 レッグ パーレーのみに賭けてください。

ハーフポイントパーレーカード

ハーフポイント・パーレーカードと他のパーレーカードの違いは、すべてのポイントスプレッドまたは合計が必ず半分になるという点です。そのため、同点になることはありません。多くのサイトでは「1/2ポイント・パーレーカード」と呼ばれていますが、単に「パーレーカード」と呼ぶところもあります。ランダムに選んだ場合、正解率は50%と予想されます。

しかし、賢いピッカーは、整数の「ボード外」の数字に比べて、追加のハーフポイントを獲得できます。例えば、セインツがファルコンズに対して5ポイントの優勢だとします。ハーフポイントカードは、そのポイントスプレッドを4.5または5.5に変える可能性が非常に高いです。もし4.5に変わるなら、セインツに-4.5を賭けます。もし5.5に変わるなら、ファルコンズに+5.5を賭けます。さらに良いのは、重要な数字である3と7のハーフポイントを獲得することです。なぜなら、NFLの試合の25.35%は、これらの2つの重要な数字のいずれかの勝利差で終わるからです。

以下の表は、ラスベガス周辺の様々なスポーツブックにおけるハーフポイント・パーレーカードの配当を示しています。この表の勝利は「for one」ベースです。つまり、賭けが勝ったとしても、元の賭け金は返金されません。もし最も優れたカードを選ぶとしたら、ウィリアムヒルでしょう。10番と12番を除くすべてのピック数において、配当が最も高い、あるいは同率で高い配当を提供しています。10番と12番の場合、MGMプレミアムペイアウトカードが最も優れています。

ハーフポイントパーレーカード — ペイテーブル

スポーツブック
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
アリアンテ6.5 12 25 50 100 180 375 800 1300 2500
ボイド6.5 12 25 46 90 170 375 800
シーザーズ6 12 22 40 85 170 340 700 1400年6月60日
ゴールデンナゲット6.5 12 25 50 100 180 400 800
ジェリーズ・ナゲット6.5 12 25 40 80 160 375 750
LVH 6.5 12 22 42 80 156 400 800 1500
MGM 6 11 22 42 85 170 340 700 1400
MGM-PP 45 88 190 375 850 1600 3000/50
サウスポイント6.5 12 25 50 100 175 375 800
6.5 12 22.5 40 80 160 350 800
成層圏6.5 12 25 45 85 170 375 800
宝島6.5 12.5 25 45 85 160 350 800
ウィリアムヒル(南ネバダ州) 6.5 13 25 50 100 190 400 825 1500 3000
ウィリアムヒル(ネバダ州北部) 6.75 13 26 52 104 208 425 850 1500 3000
マックス6.75 13 26 52 104 208 425 850 1600 3000

注記:

  1. シーザーズスーパー パーレイ スペシャルでは、12 個出ると 1,400 円、11 個出ると 60 円、10 個出ると 6 円の配当が支払われます。
  2. MGM ピック 12 プレミアム ペイアウト パーレー カードでは、12 を引いた場合は 3,000 が支払われ、11 を引いた場合は「バッド ビート」として 50 が支払われます。詳細については、以下を参照してください

ランダムピッカー

以下の表は、ウィリアムヒル(南ネバダ州)のオッズに基づいて、ランダムピックの勝率と期待リターンを示しています。各ピックの勝率はちょうど50.0%です。表からわかるように、ハウスエッジは非常に高くなっています。ランダムピックをしなければならない場合、ハウスエッジはピック10とピック10の両方で最低16.92%です。

ハーフポイントパーレーカード - ランダムピッカー

支払うおそらく勝利有効期限
3 6.5 0.125000 -0.187500
4 13 0.062500 -0.187500
5 25 0.031250 -0.218750
6 50 0.015625 -0.218750
7 100 0.007813 -0.218750
8 200 0.003906 -0.218750
9 400 0.001953 -0.218750
10 850 0.000977 -0.169922
11 1,600 0.000488 -0.218750
12 3,000 0.000244 -0.267578

半分のポイントを獲得


このパーレーは2回賭けましたが負けました
2点差で勝利したパッカーズのみ。

以下の表は、ボード上の整数ポイントスプレッドを持つすべての試合をランダムにピックオフし、追加の0.5ポイントを獲得した場合の勝率と期待リターンを示しています。各ピックの勝率はちょうど52.76%です。配当は、南ネバダ州のウィリアムヒルカードに基づいています。表は、ピック4からプレイヤーのアドバンテージが始まっており、ピック12では最大38.35%のアドバンテージがあることを示しています。ケリーベットのベストベットはピック6で、アドバンテージと分散の比率は0.001403です。

ハーフポイントパーレーカード — ハーフポイントピッカー

支払うおそらく勝利有効期限
3 6.5 0.146839 -0.045548
4 13 0.077468 0.007081
5 25 0.040870 0.021743
6 50 0.021562 0.078082
7 100 0.011375 0.137528
8 190 0.006001 0.140239
9 400 0.003166 0.266435
10 825 0.001670 0.378025
11 1,500 0.000881 0.321827
12 3,000 0.000465 0.394713

3 と 7 から 0.5 ポイントを獲得します。

以下の表は、整数ポイントスプレッドが3と7の試合のみをランダムにピックオフし、追加の0.5ポイントを獲得した場合の勝率と期待リターンを示しています。各ピックの勝率はちょうど54.42%です。ここでも、配当は南ネバダ州のウィリアムヒルカードに基づいています。表はピック数ごとに選手のアドバンテージを示しており、ピック12では最大103%のアドバンテージが得られます。しかし、NFLの試合の25.03%はポイントスプレッドが3または7です。16試合制の週を考えると、この基準を満たす試合はわずか4試合しかありません。ケリーベットの最良の選択肢は、アドバンテージと分散の比率が0.010380であるピック4です。

ハーフポイントパーレーカード - 3と7のピッカーからハーフポイント

支払うおそらく勝利有効期限
3 6.5 0.161187 0.047718
4 13 0.087722 0.140384
5 25 0.047740 0.193507
6 50 0.025981 0.299068
7 100 0.014140 0.413966
8 190 0.007695 0.462074
9 400 0.004188 0.675146
10 825 0.002279 0.880285
11 1,500 0.001240 0.860536
12 3,000 0.000675 1.025093

ネバダ州南部と北部

ネバダ州北部は豊富な水資源に恵まれているだけでなく(少なくともパイプラインを建設して水を奪うまでは)、ウィリアムヒルのハーフポイント・パーレーカードもより豊富です。こうしたプレミアム配当がどれほど役立つかを示す例として、以下の表はネバダ州南部と北部のパーレーカードの期待値を示しています。これは、各レッグを正しく選ぶ確率が54%という仮定に基づいていますが、これは妥当な推定値だと思います。

ウィリアムヒルのパーレーオッズ - ネバダ州南部 vs. ネバダ州北部

南部
ネバダ州
支払う
北部
ネバダ州
支払う
おそらく勝利南部
ネバダ州
Exp. Val.
北部
ネバダ州
Exp. Val.
3 6.5 6.75 15.75% 2.35% 6.29%
4 13 13 8.50% 10.54% 10.54%
5 25 26 4.59% 14.79% 19.38%
6 50 52 2.48% 23.97% 28.93%
7 100 104 1.34% 33.89% 39.25%
8 190 208 0.72% 37.37% 50.39%
9 400 425 0.39% 56.17% 65.93%
10 825 850 0.21% 73.94% 79.21%
11 1500 1500 0.11% 70.77% 70.77%
12 3000 3000 0.06% 84.44% 84.44%

MGMプレミアムペイアウトカード

次の表は、MGMピック12プレミアムペイアウトパーレーカードの分析です。この賭けの特徴は、プレイヤーが12個中11個を正しく選んだ場合、「バッドビート」として50ドルの勝利金が支払われることです。次の表は、ランダムピックの場合の賭けを分析しています。右下のセルは、87.89%のリターンを示しています。

12レッグプレミアムペイアウト - ランダムピッカー

正しい選択支払う確率戻る
12 3,000 0.000244 0.732422
11 50 0.002930 0.146484
10以下0 0.996826 0.000000
合計1.000000 0.878906

次の表は、常に市場ラインより0.5ポイント高いラインを選択する「ハーフポイント」ピッカーの12点ピックプレミアムペイアウトのリターンを示しています。右下のセルは164%のリターンを示しています。

プレミアムペイアウトピック12 — ハーフポイントピッカーピッカー

正しい選択支払う確率戻る
12 3,000 0.000465 1.394713
11 50 0.004996 0.249788
10以下0 0.994539 0.000000
合計1.000000 1.644501

シーザーズ スーパーパーレースペシャル

次の表は、シーザーズ・ピック12・スーパーパーレイ・スペシャルを分析したものです。この賭けの特徴は、12回のピック全てを当てると1,400ドル、11回なら60ドル、10回なら6ドルの配当が支払われることです。次の表は、ランダムピックの場合の賭けを分析したものです。右下のセルは、61.43%のリターンを示しています。MGMのプレミアムペイアウトカードの95%のリターンと比較すると、同じ仮定の下では、オッズはそれほど高くありません。

スーパーパーレースペシャル - ランダムピッカー

正しい選択支払う確率戻る
12 1,400 0.000244 0.341797
11 60 0.002930 0.175781
10 6 0.016113 0.096680
9以下0 0.980713 0.000000
合計1.000000 0.614258

次の表は、ベッターが常に0.5ポイント有利となるスーパーパーレースペシャルのリターンを示しています。右下のセルは109.02%のリターンを示しています。MGMのプレミアムペイアウトカードの176%のリターンと比較すると、同じ仮定の下ではオッズはそれほど良くありません。

スーパーパーレースペシャル - ハーフポイントピッカー

正しい選択支払う確率戻る
12 1,400 0.000461 0.645619
11 60 0.004963 0.297754
10 6 0.024476 0.146858
9以下0 0.970100 0.000000
合計1.000000 1.090231

引き分け勝利パーレーカード

通常、パーレーカードでは、引き分けが発生した場合、賭け手が最初からその試合を選ばなかったかのように配当が「減額」されます。例えば、ピック5カードで4勝1引き分けの場合、賭け手はピック4カードに基づいて配当を受け取ります。しかし、その名の通り、「引き分け勝ち」カードでは引き分けも勝ちとしてカウントされます。さらに、スプレッドのほとんどは整数であるため、引き分けの可能性が高くなります。

通常見られない唯一のポイント スプレッドは 3 と -3 です。これは、NFL の試合の 15.7% が 3 点差で勝利しているためです。これらの引き分けを選手に与えるのはあまりにも有利であるため、これらのスプレッドは 2.5 または 3.5 に変更されます。

タイ勝ちパーレーカードに関する私のアドバイスは次のとおりです。

  1. 「キーナンバー」に基づいてスプレッドを選びましょう。言い換えれば、勝利の差が頻繁に生じるということです。下の表は上位10位を示しています。
  2. 市場の「ボード外」ラインとカード上のラインの間に少なくとも 0.5 ポイントの差があるゲームを選択します。

勝利の差

ランク勝利の差頻度
1 3 15.7%
2 7 9.3%
3 10 6.2%
4 6 5.4%
5 4 5.0%
6 14 4.8%
7 1 4.0%
8 17 3.6%
9 2 3.5%
10 5 3.2%

例えば、チャージャーズが試合開始時点で9.5ポイントの劣勢で、カードで10ポイントのリードを得ているとします。これは、引き分け勝利ルールにより、チャージャーズに10.5ポイント、つまりエクストラポイント1点が与えられるのと同じことになります。

以下の表は、ラスベガス周辺の様々なスポーツブックグループにおける、タイ勝利パーレーカードの配当を示しています。この表の配当は「フォーワン」方式です。つまり、賭けが勝ったとしても、元の賭け金は返金されません。最適なグループを選ぶのは困難です。なぜなら、賭けたベットの数によって配当は以下のように変化するからです。

  • ピック3: ロットは6を支払います。
  • 4番目: 11時に「宝島」を選択。
  • ピック 5: 20 のロット。
  • ピック 6:ゴールデン ナゲットサウス ポイント(40)。
  • ピック 7: 75 のロット。
  • ピック 8: 150 のロット。
  • 9番目の選択肢: LVH 305。
  • 10番目を選択: ジェリーズナゲット 625。

タイズウィンパーレイカード — ペイテーブル

スポーツブック
選ぶ3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
アリアンテ6 10 20 40 75 150 305 600 1200 2000
ボイド6 10 20 36 75 150 275 600
ゴールデンナゲット6 10 20 40 75 150 275 600
ジェリーズ・ナゲット6 10 20 39 70 150 302 625
LVH 6 10 18 33 62 120 305 600 1150
サウスポイント6 10 20 40 75 150 275 600
6 10 20 35 65 130 250 600
成層圏6 10 20 36 75 140 275 600
宝島6 11 20 38 75 140 300 600

タイ勝ちカードの価値を見積もるために、スポーツブックがどのようにカードのラインを作成したかについて仮定を立てる必要がありました。前述のように、ブックメーカーは+/- 3を除く整数スプレッドを作成することで、プレイヤーにタイのチャンスを与えることを好みます。ボード外でポイントスプレッドが+/- 3の場合、私はそれを+/- 2.5に変更しました。そうでない場合、ボード外でポイントスプレッドが既に整数である場合は、カード上で同じままであると想定します。1/2で終わる場合は、それを0.5ポイント移動して整数スプレッドにします。これらのライン作成の仮定に基づくと、タイの全体的な確率は2.89%であることがわかります。それ以外の場合、勝ちと負けの確率はそれぞれ48.56%で等しくなります。したがって、ランダムピッカーは51.44%の選択を正しく行うと予想できます。

以下の表は、ランダムピッカーの期待リターンを、各ピック数における最良の勝利に基づいて示しています。ご覧のとおり、ハウスエッジはピック数に応じて20%から31%の範囲です。

引き分け勝利パーレーカード - ランダムピッカー

選ぶ支払うおそらく勝利有効期限
3 6 0.136149 -0.183104
4 11 0.070041 -0.229546
5 20 0.036032 -0.279353
6 40 0.018537 -0.258535
7 75 0.009536 -0.284795
8 150 0.004906 -0.264133
9 305 0.002524 -0.230256
10 625 0.001298 -0.188544
11 1,150 0.000668 -0.231894
12 2,000 0.000344 -0.312786

カードメーカーが +/- 7 のポイント スプレッドを好まない場合もあることに注意する必要があります。その場合、勝利の確率は 51.44% 未満に低下します。

次の表は、カード上のポイントスプレッドが「ボード外」のスプレッドより0.5ポイント高い場合にのみピックを行うベッターの期待リターンを示しています。このようなベッターは、ピックの53.18%の勝率を期待できます。繰り返しますが、この表は最大の勝率を想定しています。リターンの列には、ハウスエッジが14.9%からプレイヤーエッジが13.1%までの範囲が示されています。

タイズ勝利パーレーカード - エクストラハーフポイントピッカー

選ぶ支払うおそらく勝利有効期限
3 6 0.150409 -0.097545
4 11 0.079989 -0.120117
5 20 0.042539 -0.149214
6 40 0.022623 -0.095084
7 75 0.012031 -0.097665
8 150 0.006398 -0.040255
9 305 0.003403 0.037821
10 625 0.001810 0.130994
11 1,150 0.000962 0.106716
12 2,000 0.000512 0.023591

引き分けはパーレーカードで負け

タイズ・ルーズ・パーレーカードは、全く異なる種類のカードです。他のパーレーカードやティーザーカードとは異なり、タイズ・ルーズ・パーレーカードは通常、1試合か2試合のみに基づいています。NFLのレギュラーシーズン中は、日曜日と月曜日のナイトゲームが対象となることが多いです。サイドやトータルの予想に加え、プレイヤーは様々なプロップから選択できます。タイに当たる可能性が高い選択肢としては、インターセプトが2回以上か以下かなどが挙げられます。タイズ・ルーズ・パーレーカードをプレイする必要がある場合、以下のアドバイスを参考にしてください。

  • 引き分けになりそうなイベントは選ばないでください。例えば、フィールドゴール3点オーバー/アンダーなどです。
  • 結果が2つ以上考えられるイベントは選択しないでください。例えば、最初のスコアがタッチダウンパス、タッチダウンラン、フィールドゴール、またはその他のスコアになるなどです。
  • 相関関係を探しましょう。例えば、一方のチームの最終スコアが奇数で、もう一方のチームの最終スコアが偶数になるなどです。試合の55.9%は奇数で終わりますが、これは必ず奇数と偶数の合計が1つずつになります。

2000年から2012年のシーズンに基づいた、役に立つかもしれない、あるいは役に立たないかもしれないその他の統計をいくつか示します。例外として、フィールドゴールの平均数は、他の年のデータがないため、2000年から2010年のシーズンに基づいています。もちろん、賭ける試合の実際の状況も考慮する必要があります。この表からわかるように、インターセプトが2回以上、またはフィールドゴールが3回以下の場合は、賭けの危険性があります。これらの数字は平均に非常に近いため、引き分けになる確率が高いからです。

NFL平均

イベント平均
第1四半期のポイント8.54
第2四半期のポイント13.16
第3四半期のポイント8.94
第4クォーターの得点12.05
インターセプト2.03
罰則12.46
ファンブル2.97
ファンブル負け1.43
パント9.65
フィールドゴール2.98
ファーストダウン37.46
ラッシュタッチダウン1.42
パスタッチダウン2.82

パーレーやティーザーカードのいずれの場合も、常に最高の配当が得られるものを探しましょう。以下の表は、様々なスポーツブックグループが引き分け負けのカードに対して支払う配当を示しています。この表の勝ちは「1対1」の配当です。つまり、賭けが勝ったとしても、元の賭け金は返金されません。

引き分け負けパーレーカード — 配当表

スポーツブック
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
ボイド11 20 40 80 160 350 800
ゴールデンナゲット6 11 20 40 80 150 300 800
MGM 6 11 20 40 80 150 300 600/20
サウスポイント6 11 20 40 80 160 350 700
6 12 23 45 80 160 320 800

次の表は、利用可能な最高のペイテーブルと各ピックの勝率50%を前提とした、ピック数ごとの期待リターンを示しています。右の列は、ハウスアドバンテージが21.9%から37.5%(痛い!)の範囲であることを示しています。

引き分け負けパーレーカード - ランダムピッカー

選ぶ支払うおそらく勝利有効期限
3 6 0.125000 -0.250000
4 12 0.062500 -0.250000
5 23 0.031250 -0.281250
6 45 0.015625 -0.296875
7 80 0.007813 -0.375000
8 160 0.003906 -0.375000
9 350 0.001953 -0.316406
10 800 0.000977 -0.218750

以下の表は、MGMピック10タイ負けカードの起こりうる結果を示しています。各イベントの勝率が50%と仮定しています。右下のセルは期待リターンが78%であることを示しています。

MGM ピック 10 タイズ 負け — 50% ピッカー

正しい選択支払う確率戻る
10 600 0.000977 0.585938
9 20 0.009766 0.195313
8以下0 0.989258 0.000000
合計1.000000 0.781250

引き分け負けのパーレーカードは価値が低いということをご理解いただけたでしょうか。ただし、例外もあります。スーパーボウルのパーレーカードには、ソフトラインのものがあります。しかし、それをどのように見分けるかはこのページでは説明できません。

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