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メジャーリーグ野球の賭け

このページ

メジャーリーグ野球の賭け

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このページでは、趣味で野球に賭ける方に向けて、様々な賭け方に関するアドバイスを提供することを目指しています。私は野球のハンディキャップに関する知識は全くないので、私にできることは、最適な賭け方をご案内することくらいです。野球に賭ける主な方法は、以下の3つです。

  • マネーライン:どのチームが勝つかを賭けます。
  • 合計: 合計実行数が指定された数 (通常は 7 から 12 の間) を上回るか下回るかを賭けます。
  • ランライン:フットボールやバスケットボールのスプレッドに賭けるのと似ています。ただし、野球では、より強いチームには常に1.5倍の有利なオッズが付けられます。マネーラインでどちらのチームも有利ではないと示されている場合、どちらのチームも有利になる可能性があります。

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データのソース

この分析のベースとなっているデータは、2016年と2017年のシーズンに行われたメジャーリーグベースボールの試合です。データが不完全なため、2試合を除外しました。このページのベースとなっている試合数は合計4,929試合です。

楽しい事実

次の表は、ラン、ヒット、エラーの平均数を示しています。

MLB平均 2016-2017

アイテム離れて合計1
ラン4.47 4.64 9.10
ヒット8.71 8.64 17.34
エラー0.58 0.58 1.16
合計13.76 13.87 27.61

注記

1. 四捨五入のため、合計が各部の合計と一致しない場合があります。

マネーラインベット

野球のマネーライン、あるいは他のスポーツベットにおいて、両チームのライン間のベーシスポイント、つまり「セント」の差はどれくらいでしょうか?例えば、10セントのラインセットは+120/-130、または+105/+105となります。以下は、各チームの勝利確率が50%に近いと仮定した場合の、ラインのセント数ごとの理論的なハウスエッジです。

  • 10セント:2.38%
  • 15セント:3.49%
  • 20セント:4.55%

本稿執筆時点(2018 年 9 月 20 日)で、どのスポーツ ブック グループが野球のマネー ライン ベットのセットを提供しているかは次のとおりです。

  • 10セントライン:ウェストゲート、ウィリアムヒル、サウスポイント、ステーション、CGテクノロジー、ゴールデンナゲット、ジェリーズナゲット、ボイド
  • 15セントライン:ストラトスフィア、シーザーズ、ウィン
  • 20セントライン:MGM/ミラージュ、トレジャーアイランド

ホームチームまたはアウェイチーム

アウェイチームへのマネーラインベットはホームチームへのベットよりもわずかにパフォーマンスが良いことがわかりました。両方の期待リターンは以下のとおりです。

  • アウェイチーム: 98.30%
  • ホームチーム: 97.99%

この 0.3% の差は統計的に有意ではないと思います。

優勝候補か劣勢か

以下は、10 セント ラインに対する、アンダードッグとフェイバリットの両方の予想リターンです。

  • アンダードッグ:98.49%
  • お気に入り: 97.79%

予想通り、下馬評で劣勢だったチームがより良い成績を残しました。これはアメリカのあらゆるスポーツに当てはまるようです。

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オーバー/アンダーベット

以下の表は、合計ランがオーバー、アンダー、そしてオーバー/アンダーラインと完全に一致した回数を示しています。リターンの列は、20セントラインを想定したハウスエッジを示しています。アンダーベットではハウスエッジが2.25%低くなることに注意してください。

MLBのオーバー/アンダーベット

結果番号確率
以上2315 46.97% 5.45%
2373 48.14% 3.20%
押す241 4.89%
合計4929 100.00%

ランラインベット

20 セントラインのセットに基づいて、次の期待収益を示します。

  • アンダードッグ +1.5: 96.34%
  • お気に入り -1.5: 96.90%

ランラインでフェイバリットチームがアンダードッグチームを上回る成績を収めているのには驚きました。NHLパックラインではそうはいきません。その差は0.64%とかなり小さいので、フェイバリットチームが今後も好成績を収め続けるとは考えにくいです。

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